Discussion
Analysis from West Point warns that strait of Hormuz blockade will strangle US defense industry
redwood: Everyone's an expert 19 days into a conflict that was absolutely foreseen in comprehensive United States military planning. People need to have some patience.What's clear is it the way this is being executed is a complete reboot of how prior Middle East conflicts were executed which suggests major ownership of prior problems and learnings applied
josefritzishere: I think the take away is that if the administration is inept with duplo blocks, they are not going to fare will with lego blocks.
pjc50: > "knock-on effect of this war is that it may cost double or more than double to replace all these weapons because all the mineral demand is going to go way upIt's a lazy assumption that the motivation for war is profit, but in this case ...
imjonse: what other assumptions sound more reasonable?
jameskilton: > only 6% of US defense contractors have fully transparent supply chainsThe Industrial-Military complex and the constant fight against Right-to-Repair is finally biting us in the ass. It remains to be seen if we will learn anything from this disaster.
echoangle: How much would material prices have to increase that replacement cost doubles? The main factor in weapon prices is development cost and manufacturing, not the raw materials, right?
ImPostingOnHN: Now that, say, the Patriot missile is already developed, every new one made and sold for millions is profitable.
kvuj: > “We don’t know who their vendors are,” he said, adding that beyond a few steps in long chains of subcontractors, “nobody actually knows who’s providing these metals, these minerals, the parts. And it just becomes a maze.”So how can you predict the impact on the US defense industry? How can you predict it will be strangled?What the hell is this shitty article that doesn't use a single hard number? No graphs, no prediction based on previous wars, no investigative dig into the supply chains...
softwaredoug: I’ve seen a lot of subreddits devolve into posting political rage bait articles plastered with ads and very little substance. I hope that doesn’t happen here.
yabones: It's kind of funny how the US military, the largest single consumer of fossil fuels on the planet, didn't consider that disrupting the largest source of fossil fuels would impact them.
selectodude: They demoted or fired all the people in the room who would raise a concern for being gay and woke.
softwaredoug: They of course considered it. It’s the civilians at the top that did not.
baal80spam: > What the hell is this shitty article that doesn't use a single hard number? No graphs, no prediction based on previous wars, no investigative dig into the supply chains...That's The Guardian for you, sir.
kelipso: Wow, seeing tech manager talk in war context is really something. Finding new and innovative way to kill millions of civilians everyday. I suppose there are real people who do actually do this.
defrost: It's more or less a near direct do over of the original source from Westpoint Military Academy.The Chokepoint We Missed: Sulfur, Hormuz, and the Threats to Military Readiness https://mwi.westpoint.edu/the-chokepoint-we-missed-sulfur-ho...It's reasonable to assume that a fuller version exists in which Morgan D. Bazilian and Macdonald Amoah lay out the background data which Lt. Col. Jahara “Franky” Matisek et al have seen. Morgan D. Bazilian is the director of the Payne Institute for Public Policy and professor at the Colorado School of Mines, with over thirty years of experience in global energy policy and investment. A former World Bank lead energy specialist and senior diplomat at the UN, he has held roles in the Irish government and advisory positions with the World Economic Forum and the International Energy Agency. A Fulbright fellow, he has published widely on energy security and international affairs. Macdonald Amoah is an independent researcher with interests across critical mineral supply chains, advanced manufacturing gaps, the industrial base, and geopolitical risks in the mining sector. Lt. Col. Jahara “Franky” Matisek (PhD) is a US Air Force command pilot, nonresident research fellow at the US Naval War College, and senior fellow at the Payne Institute for Public Policy, and a visiting scholar at Northwestern University. He is the most published active duty officer currently serving, with over 150 articles on industrial base issues, strategy, and warfare.
d3ckard: Yes, especially murdering a school full of girls during the first days seems like a perfect example of extensive planning and preparation.
redwood: Has anyone ever claimed that wars don't involve mistakes. That wars are not hell, that wars are somehow a good phenomenon associated with the human species? But has anyone not naive argued that wars are not sometimes necessary to achieve objectives?I genuinely wonder what point you have here other than to remind us of these fundamental human truths. And if so thank you. But I would ask you what would you be doing if you were making the policy decision?
pearlsontheroad: It should be investigated as a war crime.
defrost: You dropped an /sTell us more about US minesweepers and the comprehensive United States military planning.What, no minesweepers in the region? Need help from other allies that have been insulted and told they're not needed for five (non consecutive) years?Great planning.
redwood: Minesweepers require comprehensive dominance of the littoral region with total suppression of firepower from the enemy before they can be applied. We are in the suppression phase before those assets can be brought into the region
ImPostingOnHN: How did the plan to eliminate littoral attacks and avoid mining entirely, before it disrupted shipping, go? Great planning.Here's [0] some reading about how the head of the entire armed forces failed to plan for this:>> But Trump’s preference of leaning on a tight circle of close advisers in his national security decision making had the effect of sidelining interagency debate over the potential economic fallout if Iran were to respond to US-Israeli strikes by closing the strait.*> “Planning around preventing this exact scenario — impossible as it has long seemed — has been a bedrock principle of US national security policy for decades,” a former US official who served in Republican and Democratic administrations said. “I’m dumbfounded.”0 – https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/12/politics/hormuz-trump-adminis...
vincnetas: "That wars are not hell"... yeah, must be real hell sitting thousands of kilometers away and pressing buttons on your computer while looking at the monitor and then going home at five PM. Real hell. /s
