Discussion
Oil and gas prices jump after Iran and Israel attack gasfields
juliusceasar: No, it is just ISRAEL doing all the shit. Israel is the biggest threat, economically, to Europe at the moment.
ramon156: s/No/Yes/s/just//They're not exclusive
jvpr94: Already feeling this even in Brazil... Right when we got inflation under control for a couple of years.
Jordanpomeroy: You got inflation under control? Must be nice…
jeffbee: After thinking it over I'm on the side of the people of Iran. Why aren't they blowing up refineries in Corpus Christi, Texas?
srean: Even if they could I don't think they would. It is not in their interest. For now all they seem to want is to have a financially viable future as an independent country, not as anybodies vassal, not as a country for other superpowers to play games for geopolitical reasons. Essentially to control their own destiny.That was scuttled in 1953. Their civilian aircraft was shot down without apology. Saddam Hussein was foisted against them. They pulled through 8 years of wars that saw attacks with chemical weapons to which they lost several tens of thousands lives.If they do not like the people who have messed with them, I cannot say that their feelings are unjustified.
longislandguido: Yet gas is still cheaper than it was multiple times during the Biden admin. There is a modicum of manufactured hysteria here.
TrackerFF: Some airlines are cancelling flights left and right, others are jacking up the prices. If the war keeps going on into the summer, there's going to be some very obvious consumer-facing issues. From gas prices, very expensive travel, price hikes in logistics, you name it.
derf_: I think the timeline is much shorter than that. These oil-producing nations have not invested in a lot of storage, because they usually ship everything out immediately. Once you no longer have anywhere to put the oil, you have to start shutting down production, and it is not easy to restart. We'll be at that point in maybe another week and a half.
solstice: Is there anyone here with a deeper understanding of oilfield geology and engineering? Given that:- storage facilities in the region are limited and in some cases almost full- mature oil fields need constant water injections to pump out the remaining crudeHow likely is it that stopping crude extraction (and therefore the water injections) will permanently damage the oil reservoirs?And based on that is it possible that countries with this type of mature oil fields would consider simply dumping the excess crude that can't be stored anymore in the desert or in the Gulf of Persia?
toomuchtodo: Restarting Fieldwide Shutdown for Middle East Oil and Gas Producers is Not Easy - https://cyrusashayeri.substack.com/p/restarting-fieldwide-sh... is a resource I found helpful.
Argonaut998: I’m probably missing some subtext or sarcasm here but because they don’t have ICBMs to reach the US?
OgsyedIE: There is one way that production could resume, of course: a public peace that is both real and accompanied by Iranian broadcast of orders to their coastal troops to stand down.Given the ongoing campaign to assassinate Iranian diplomats who may be willing to negotiate peace whilst leaving hardliners alive, the only question is what kind of inducements will be necessary to get them to agree?
mullingitover: A few critical items beyond oil are also now in short supply:Fertilizer, which is kind of important right now since it's springtime and farmers are planting crops around the world.Plastic, without which modern hospitals can't operate.Aluminum.The list goes on, this was the dumbest war in our lifetimes but it's the culmination of a lot of previous stupidity that made it all possible.The people who started this war are authoritarians and, let's be honest, straight up criminals, who did it to entrench their grip on their own domestic politics.
cogman10: Yes to fertilizer,no to plastic,IDK about aluminum.The liquid to make plastic is a natural byproduct of oil processing. That stuff is literally cheaper than water because everyone that processes oil needs to get rid of it. Even if it triples in price, there will still be plenty of it available on the global market.
mullingitover: > no to plastic,"Dow CEO says up to 50% of polyethylene supply is offline, constrained or impacted amid Middle East disruptions - conf call" [1][1] https://www.marketscreener.com/news/dow-ceo-says-up-to-50-of...
igravious: “Oil and gas prices jump after US-proxy Israel attacks Iranian gasfield infrastructure, and after Iran responds in kind after having promised to do so.”is a headline that reflects reality and doesn't finesse the details -- I should really become a headline writer, I'm clearly better than whoever is employed by The Guardian.At the very least it should be "Oil and gas prices jump after Israel and then Iran attack gasfields"Putting Iran first might lead some to believe this was Iran-initiated, which of course is probably the intention.
GolfPopper: >the dumbest war in our lifetimesWhile it is indeed foolish, it is worse than foolish, it is evil.
pzo: I don't get why the prices jumped so much - looks like panic and hoarding because:- The Middle East produces roughly 30% of the world's oil- But about 20% of total global oil consumption flows through this strait (less than 30% because of of domestic consumption and some pipelines avoiding strait)I would understand if prices increases e.g. 50% but like more than 100% seems like a panic or manipulation
tencentshill: I had this thought as well. But oil prices are set globally on the exchanges, even oil that never leaves the US is affected.
pphysch: The buried lede: Israel did an unprovoked attack on Pars and Iran immediately retaliated by attacking QatarEnergy, which has major LNG partnerships with US oil companies.
lokar: And it's important to not that until that point, both the US and Israel had not been attacking any of the Iranian production and export infrastructure, only some depots (and refineries?) for domestic use.
fogzen: Good. I hope gas becomes so unaffordable the US economy collapses. Maybe they'll lose some weight and it'll improve the healthcare situation.
izzydata: It seems highly unlikely that the US will magically have trains and more walk-able living because gas is unaffordable. Especially if it was a drastic and sudden shock of supply. Myself as much as anyone is not in favor of the reliance the US has on cars and non-renewable energy, but causing chaos is not the way to do it.
pasquinelli: i think they're saying the situation then would be such that americans won't be able to eat so much. thst might shock you sensibilities, but remember that thousands of iranian civilians have been indiscriminately murdered these last couple weeks, by america.
alexgieg: Oil demand is mostly inelastic. No matter how much or how little is produced, those who need it NEED it, so they'll compete with all others who similarly need it. The richest ones from among them get the oil first, and the poorest get nothing. The end price ends up being a function of how much oil is available versus how much the richest countries' absolutely irreducibly need for oil is versus how much wealth those countries can throw at the problem not to be left without before someone else with deeper pockets gets it.
cogman10: I don't think anything short of the US completely cutting ties with Israel would make Iran consider backing down at this point. And even then, I expect they'll continue directly attacking Israel.
srean: Such a change given Iran was one of the few Middle-Eastern countries to approve of the UN resolution calling for the formation of Israel.
gotwaz: Its a good thing. Good opportunity to push electrification of everything and ditch oil for good. I hope it keep pushing oil prices up.
frankharv: I agree. Why is domestic oil linked to global oil price?We are energy independent? Big Oil is milking US.
cogman10: Not exactly a recent change. Since the '79 revolution Iran has had a pretty hostile position against Israel and the US. A big part of that hostility was because the US and the UK overthrew their democracy to install a puppet dictator in '53.
frankharv: Evil like holding US Embassy Staff hostage for 444 days?It has been a long time being kicked in the face by these jackals before finally somebody did something.I approve even if gas is now $1/GAL more.I hope we have teams in Yemen too taking advantage of the cut off of war supplies.Wipe out the axis of evil for good. We cannot afford to be the worlds police.
throwaway2109: It is absolutely mind blowing that the sentiment here seems to be "why are we doing this to good guy Iran?!"
GolfPopper: The sentiment I see is more like, "Are war crimes, mass deaths, a global depression, and maybe WWIII really worth keeping the earlier crimes of Trump and Netanyahu out of the headlines?"
tengbretson: Uniting to fight gasfields might be just the common enemy that Iran and Israel need to finally mend this relationship.
axus: If you had a secret agenda to reduce the world's carbon production, this is one way to go about it.
cousin_it: Except for all these burning gas and oil fields.
after Iran and Israel attack gasfields
bambax: > after Iran and Israel attack gasfieldsAfter Israel attacked gasfields and Iran retaliated. Iran didn't start any of this.
1234letshaveatw: So true. They just wanted to fund terrorists, build nukes and be left alone
pasquinelli: i think everyone understands what the word "terrorist" means now.
srean: They were attacked because they did not yet have a nuke. Countries with nukes are usually not pushed around much.From what I see, Iran absolutely needs one to be left alone.As for terrorism you should be looking at Saudi Arabia and Pakistan.
ivell: India attacked Pakistan regardless of nuke. It is not a given that nuke brings security.
bethekidyouwant: I’m not sure if enriching 500 kg of uranium to 60% purity while claiming that Israel should be wiped off the map is “not starting anything” Strictly speaking, of course..
yolo3000: Didn't we see threats from other countries with nukes, like US, Russia, Israel
bethekidyouwant: What do you mean? be specific
yonixw: > After Israel attacked gasfields and Iran retaliatedThat timeline is incorrect. Iran attacked nearby countries oil and gas since the 2nd day of the war. So, from the get go. (Not to mention closing the Strait of Hormuz, and attacking random oil tankers).Israel/US started the War, Iran was the first to use oil/gas as a weapon.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2026_Iran_war
10xDev: It is pretty clear Iran is only going up the escalation ladder when Israel does. Even Trump blamed Israel for the escalation: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8x7leknlywo
yonixw: It is really not clear at all from the timeline. Why attack Saudi oil refinery 2 days after Israel/US attacked you?And don't bring Trump quotes when only convenient. You yourself don't believe his already existing statements. (Me too)
10xDev: >Israel hit Iran's South Pars - part of the world's largest natural gas field – and Tehran retaliated by striking an energy complex in Qatar.I believe when lying doesn't help him. It doesn't matter if it is Qatar / Saudi if it still affects the US / Israel.
srean: The justification I have heard is that crown prince okayed and assisted with the intelligence that helped with the assassination of Khamenei.I have no way to know how far that is true, but I won't put that beyond crown prince.
mdni007: Who's the source for this? Isreal or the Epstien government?
GolfPopper: Netahyau has been claiming Iran will have a nuclear weapon "real soon" for thirty years.https://www.news18.com/world/weeks-away-by-next-spring-video...
