Discussion
sixhobbits: I (my agents) have been playing with the kalshi and poly market APIsv and whatever your opinion on the markets themselves it does feel like there's a bunch of interesting things to do with such a firehose of realtime data.I hope they stay as open and generous as they are now with programmatic access
throwaway0665: These apps claim to let you turn your knowledge into money. What this means is the insiders get to cash out and the desperate suckers provide the liquidity. I'm amazed they've all gotten away with this for so long.
arowthway: I don't understand, what's so fundamentally wrong with this form of insider trading? Is the accusation that it makes degenerate gambling unfair? Is it necessary for degenerate gambling to be fair? The gamblers don't seem to care.
topspin: "I hope they stay as open and generous as they are now with programmatic access"Make a prediction for it: When will Gamma/Data/CLOB require subscription: 2026, 2027, etc.
DonHopkins: I didn't bet on the beat this broke on.https://youtu.be/ZN4njIQcSR4?t=1815
yen223: Matt Levine pointed out in a past article that the real danger of insider trading are company insiders being incentivised to damage the company to make a quick buck.
Terr_: There's also the external side, where the insider sabotage can arise because the "market" has laundered/facilitated a kind of crowd-sourced bribery by enemies or competitors.Every time I see a prediction-market executive dismissing these kinds of issues, I imagine how their tune would change if the shoe was on the other foot. For example, how they would clutch their peals if someone created a crypto "prediction market" where people could bet on unusual injuries or deaths of prediction-market executives.
wodenokoto: > The gamblers don't seem to care.Which makes me wonder if it is actually just money laundering.
amwet: The obvious counter example is lotteries. People just like to gamble.
sznio: beyond the general idea that we shouldn't normalize gambling, betting on some real-life events is horrid. think about insider trading on a polymarket bet for someone's death.
CTDOCodebases: Or even worse what happens when people start gambling that someone won’t die today? It opens the door to crowdsourced hits with plausible deniability.
