Discussion
grantpitt: Somewhat analogously the best predictor of if I read a book on a given day is if I read the day before, I'd guess.
hyperhello: Whether solar is economically reasonable is a matter of the variables of your location. You need strong retail power parity laws, for example. If solar makes sense for one person it makes sense for the other people in the area. Why does there have to be a “catching on” effect?
xg15: Kind of reminds me of "nucleation sites" in physics.I think one factor that's missing from the explanation is the extensive media and political coverage that solar panels got: There are probably very few people by now that don't know what a roof solar panel is or who don't have an opinion on them.So my guess is that most of those neighbors who "suddenly" decided to also get a panel, were already interested or at least curious about getting one. (In the sense of "I should totally be getting one some time, but I have no time/now idea how to start/other things are more important/etc")Maybe the early adopter was then what changed peoples' stance from a vague idea to a concrete plan.
jandrese: Some of it may also be neighborhoods where solar contractors went door to door selling the systems. Even if you don't buy from that salesman you get the numbers in your head and start to realize it isn't some exotic tech for elite weirdos.
People who prioritize their health are more likely to have friends who prioritize their health. And so on.
pavel_lishin: > People who prioritize their health are more likely to have friends who prioritize their health. And so on. > > We become like the people we choose to be around.I'm not convinced that that's it. It's more likely that the first person who got solar installed talked to their neighbors about it, and the neighbors were convinced. It's not like after you move to a neighborhood, you're really choosing anything after that point about your neighbors.
