Discussion
Oil nears $110 a barrel after gas field strike
fla10212: The natural gas field strike very conveniently increases the EU dependencies on US LNG. The diversification via Qatar had already been shut down, now Israel drives the Iranian gas buyers to compete on the world market.It is a great plan. The Gulf Monarchies are weakened (that is what you get for your Trump bribes ...), the EU is weakened, and the US controls all energy flows.China can use the land route to Russia. The EU is going to commit economic suicide instead.
cyberax: If I were the EU, I'd send a covert ops team to assassinate Putin. Then start talking with his successor and re-establish the Nord Stream deliveries.
mlsu: That could work really well, or it could fail in a humiliating public way and totally confirm+legitimize that regime's paranoia. Huge downsides.
SV_BubbleTime: EU has had a lot of time to recognize the situation they have been in regarding energy.Sorry, but this will never not be not amusing. Where Trump being a stopped clock warns the UN about relying on foreign energy and the German delegation laughs as they were shutting down their nuclear and increasing reliance on Russia for energy.https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FfJv9QYrlwg
loudmax: > It is a great plan.Let's be real here. Nothing this administration ever does is planned.
fla10212: The plans to destabilize Syria and Iran have existed since the Obama administration. Trump is just the hatchet man.
pphysch: These "decapitation" strikes can't be much more than narcissistic projection. Trump and Netanyahu are "unilateralists" (de facto dictators) and narcissists, and think everyone else must be as well, ergo decapitation strikes must be successful.It may have been true in the case of Maduro, but the jury is out (we also "decapitated" Hugo Chavez in the early 2000s but he came roaring back).It is emphatically not true in the case of Iran, Russia, and China. These states have deep political power structures that don't rely on the whims of one individual.
OgsyedIE: It's important to clarify that these are the trading prices at the main oil futures exchange in London. The spot prices in the landing hubs like Gujarat, Odisha and Singapore are significantly higher.If you or your firm handles trucking or mining or tractors or something like buses, stock up on additives where the vast majority of production (like brake fluid, AdBlue (DEF) and gear oil) is Asian now before they get even more expensive. To give a sense of perspective, I've seen prices for transmission fluid and antifreeze almost double month-on-month in England where I am.
ck2: various markets, all of them I thinkhttps://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/
mkoubaa: Real life isn't a James Bond movie. The next guy in line is more belligerent than Putin
CamperBob2: Then kill him too.Eventually nobody will want the job.
cpursley: Like parent alluded too, lay off the Hollywood. It's not how these sort of thing goes down in real life.
jkestner: I don't feel like that's working out so great in Iran.
cpursley: The only delivery from that event would be global nuclear annihilation. Anyways, it wasn't them that stopped Nord Stream. I bet they'd be glad to open it for a price.
thow7987922o: Israel bombed the main Iranian Gas Field in Pars.This will likely lead to destruction of energy infrastructure across the Gulf from tit-for-tat attacks leading to the worst case scenario that everyone has been warning about - the complete destruction of all energy infra across the Gulf. Iran's trump-card was exactly this - they've given written letters that this is what their response was going to be.This is extremely serious - this is going wreck Asia (I don't think US/West will be isolated from this). I'd not be surprised if significant percentage of people in places like India to die from famines (think 100s of millions) and supply-chain issues if this goes where the mad apocalypse-obsessed suicidal Zionists in Israel/US are pushing this.Do you really need the "blood-sacrifice" of the Asian "pagans" for your silly eschatological larping ? Eesh - can these religious nuts all go to some desert and shoot themselves in the head, go to "heaven" with their messiah, and leave the humans to live in peace ?
fla10212: Trump? The same Trump that threatened Greenland while the EU is relying on US LNG? Indeed the EU should not rely on US energy.Trump is completely inconsistent anyway. First he blamed the EU for wanting to continue the Ukraine war. Then he periodically floats lifting Russian sanctions. But if the EU were to lift Russia sanctions, that of course would lead to severe repercussions.Trump is about economic suppression of the EU.If you say "nuclear energy". The US has imported Russian uranium to at least 2025.
fpoling: With this prices it is cheaper to make fuel from coal, the break even price was about 80-90 USD/barrel. And if this continues for months this will pushes wind and solar and electrical cars making natural gas and oil much less relevant. Maybe that was the plan.
ck2: btw fertilizer prices are now 40% higherthis is going to destroy world economy on every anglefuel and now foodit's like the Israeli's figured out the answer to their problem was to make it everyone's problemhow about we stop giving them offensive weapons, defensive only or we'll be going through this every decade
giraffe_lady: Any effective defensive weapon is an offensive weapon, in that it allows you to commit other resources to offense, or defend against a retaliation in response to an escalating offense on your part.
cousin_it: Yeah, any kind of aid (e.g. food or medicine) allows the people you're aiding to spend more on the military if they want. I guess the only way around it is to set limits on someone's military capability and make aid conditional on not crossing these limits.
10xDev: Relax, go outside, touch grass. The sun will rise again.
thow7987922o: Do you have any idea what has happened ? This is the literal end of civilization.
bluGill: Why are you blaming Israel? Iran has been fueling the fires for year by send piles of money and weapons to anyone who had a serious plan to attack Israel.Not that Israel is perfect, but there is plenty of blame to go around and recognizing that reality is required before we can even try to think of a solution. (I don't have one)
pphysch: There are vague allegations of Iran being the "leading state sponsor of terror" on one scale, and then Israel openly doing a genocide and starting wars of aggression and assassinating countless civilian and military leaders on the other scale, with a growing number of American bodies as cannon fodder.It is up to you to decide where justice lies.
krior: Are you blaming Israel for american troops in Iran? Is the US not a sovreign nation anymore?
cwillu: Because they're the ones that poured water onto the burning pan of oil. Nobody is claiming that they created the problem in its entirety, but they have made it significantly worse this month.
snickerbockers: We shouldn't even be giving them defensive weapons because that only enables them to wage war without consequence. In this specific case its a moot point since we joined this war in the most direct way possible but in general every time we shoot down one country's missiles but not the other we are participating in the war, especially when the side we protect is the aggressor.
jmclnx: Again the US admin proves how dumb they are, even Pres. Bush II knew it would be real stupid to attack Iran.But one thing, higher oil prices may get the US to really get working to avoid Climate Change. Yes, some progress has been made, but real CO2 emissions is increasing. The only time it decreased a bit was during the Covid Shutdown.But one plus may occur, higher price of oil.Yes, higher prices will cause suffering with the poor and middle classes, but that suffering pales in comparison to what +1.5C will cause. We are already on track for more then 2C. Suffering from that will be far worse than $150 USD price per barrel. Better to take a small hit now and hope it can keep us below 1.5C then trying to live with 2C.Yes, I posted this knowing it will be down-voted, but cheap oil only makes +3C guaranteed to happen. Who cares about the young anyway /s
reillyse: I think you are failing to understand how (some) people think in the US. Expensive oil for some means that we should drill more oil wells. There is money sitting under the ground and we stick a pipe down and get it - AMAZING.That is how people think about high oil prices.If oil was to go to zero people would stop pumping it and burning it (for that to happen the alternatives have to be cheaper/better). That is what will fix climate change in the US.
overfeed: > Maybe that was the plan.Whose?
badpun: Putin is not a mad dictator ruling against everyone’s wishes. He’s a leader of a large establishment elite which shares his views and gets very rich. If you replace Putin, most likely outcome is his replacement will not be very different (and probably worse, since the country will be even more anti-Western after the assassination)
joezydeco: Except, like Trump, they get more stupid as you go.
jjgreen: There must limits to stupidity, mustn't there?
bdangubic: and why do we care? we elected “America First” President, not “Isreal First, America who gives a hoot”
bigbadfeline: > Relax, go outside, touch grass. The sun will rise again.Yeah, and don't forget, this is all about helping the environment and the Iranian people, freeing them from that pesky and unnecessary for life energy by releasing some much needed smoke. /
krior: There is a stark difference between planning something and actually doing it.
trimbo: > this is going to destroy world economy on every angleOil prices were around $100 for a lot of the early 2010s. It's been three weeks. Calm down.
H8crilA: The Mossad and various abrahamic apocalyptic cults will finally push us into green tech. Maybe I judged them too harshly.
josefritzishere: This is a valid question, and the answer is unfortunately no. There's a lot to unpack there but basically the president is acting unilaterally and in a manner which advance the interests of foreign nations.
jasonjayr: The sun will still rise after civilization ends too.
rwyinuse: End of civilization takes a lot more than high oil/fertilizer prices, even if it causes famine in poorer countries.
bigbadfeline: > End of civilization takes a lot more than high oil/fertilizer prices,Energy prices factor into everything else, so there literally will be a lot more than higher oil/fertilizer prices.The end of civilized relations between countries is a sign of sick and dying civilization and we are there already, plenty of other evidence too.> if it causes famine in poorer countries.So compassionate of you.
1718627440: In the worst there will be some people dying, a lot of people get poor and maybe democracies will be replaced by feudal structures. It's still far away from the end of civilization.
1718627440: > EU has had a lot of time to recognize the situation they have been in regarding energy.There is no case of they just needed to pay attention earlier. The problem is known. There is just no good solution. Drastically scaling back energy consumption isn't going to happen any time soon and would harm the economy. So we can choose between Russia, the Middle East and the USA. Best would be of course to reduce fossil use, but that is orthogonal.
yyyk: Nobody forced Iran to bomb gas and oil fields that aren't even of their enemies, and to start doing it before Pars was bombed (e.g. Shah gas field was targeted 2 days ago). Place the blame on Iran who is actually 'wrecking Asia' and not the ones fighting it.
mkoubaa: That goes for both parties involved in the assassination game, and I'm pretty sure the Russians won't tap out first
joezydeco: One would think. I don't think we've hit the limit yet.
reillyse: A terrible idea, you think the Russians are going to appreciate you killing their leader?A better idea is to try to get Russia to join the EU and use an open market to exert control over the more extreme behaviors and tendencies in Russia. A lot of Russian behavior is based on paranoia (completely justifiable paranoia when you see the way the US is behaving) so perhaps having them in the European fold will chill them out a bit - obviously this is far fetched but it's at least a way to fix this long term.
cyberax: > A terrible idea, you think the Russians are going to appreciate you killing their leader?As a Russian? Absolutely yes.We had a dry run 3 years ago, during Prigozhin's mutiny. He was advancing towards Moscow at freeway speeds, and the population was happily taking pictures. Nobody was organizing barricades, protests, or pro-government rallies.
epsters: Israeli Defense Minister said earlier today that “Significant surprises are expected today across all arenas that will escalate the war to a new level.” And now they have targeted the world's largest gas field (shared with Qatar).Iranians have said they would retaliate against oil fields and refineries in Israel and the Gulf. But since the majority of US air defenses have been diverted in defense of Israel it looks like the gulf arab states will bear the brunt of the retaliation. It looks like they have already successfully struck targets in Saudi Arabia[1] and Qatar[2].This is the moral hazard in action as a result of unconditional support for the rogue-state that is Israel . Israel continues to escalate since they face little of the consequences - being under the US security umbrella. It is the rest of the world pays the price instead (apart from Russia). In a sane world we would be changing this equation such as by pulling air defense, air support, lethal aid, air tankers support, EWACs, intelligence and satellite sharing, defense away from Israel. But the Trump administration and indeed the collective west seems to be under the chokehold of this Israel lobby.[1] - https://x.com/MenchOsint/status/2034348372346245584 (alt : https://xcancel.com/MenchOsint/status/2034348372346245584 )[2] - https://x.com/MenchOsint/status/2034340405060194649 (alt : https://xcancel.com/MenchOsint/status/2034340405060194649)
WJW: You could do this whole plan without needing to do the assassination part, as long as you are willing to throw Ukraine under the bus. Conversely, even if the assassination scheme goes exactly as planned, there is no way of guaranteeing that the new Russian leader would be willing to restart gas deliveries until the war in Ukraine has wrapped up. Given that especially the eastern EU countries have absolutely no intention of allowing Ukraine to lose, this seems like a very tall order.Finally, both Nordstream 1 AND Nordstream 2 still have a gaping holes in them from the bombings so restarting deliveries will probably take several years at least.All in all, this plan gets only a 2 out of 10 for being impractical, too slow AND depending on factors outside our control. 1 point because it does at least sound spy-ish and proactive.
cyberax: > You could do this whole plan without needing to do the assassination partNot really. Putin will not deal with Europe honestly.
cyberax: Nope. Putin _is_ a mad dictator completely disconnected from the realities of Russia. Just like Maduro in Venezuela. So if he's killed, nobody is going to be bothered by this except a few dozen of his closest allies.Putin's regime is purely authoritarian ("information autocracy") it has _no_ ideology. Moreover, the government in Russia does everything it can to keep the population passive.And before you ask, Iran was different because it's _not_ an authoritarian country. It's a full-blown totalitarian theocracy with an official ideology and the elites there actually _believe_ in their doctrine. They have a core of people who will die rather than betray it. And most importantly, they have actual institutions that can survive the death of individuals.
pickleglitch: > And if this continues for months this will pushes wind and solar and electrical cars making natural gas and oil much less relevant. Maybe that was the plan.This is one of the most batshit insane things I've ever read. What on Earth would make you think this?
seanmcdirmid: "Trump started the war in Iran to make green energy and EVs more desirable" is an actual conspiracy theory that is going around, although, ya, definitely an unintended consequence.
baq: Given how the previous conspiracy theories turned out we really needed some unconfirmed ones, thanks.
karmakurtisaani: We can't even get Israel out of the Eurovision song contest. Having them face any real consequences is still far away.
