Discussion

As US missiles leave South Korea, the Philippines asks: are we next?

expedition32: If the US has problems with Iran imagine how the Chinese could darken the skies with drones if they wanted to.

noduerme: America is a bit overstretched at the moment. As far as I can tell, we spent about 50 years in the cold war talking up liberty and democracy, but that was essentially all kind of a BS cultural-supremacy soft-power fig leaf until the cold war ended. Then we had about 20 years of politicians who thought the soft power stuff was all you needed. About a decade of unwinding that position, and the new paradigm is to get back to creating a global order and dispatching regimes that disrupt our commerce. The security concerns haven't changed, but the way of dealing with them has.The only trouble is, we are no longer the superpower that we were in 1950 or even 1980. What I think will be interesting from this realignment is how our alliances will probably shift toward countries which are strategically aligned with us even if they're much less ethically or ideologically aligned with our stated beliefs.South Korea and the Philippines are both "capable allies" in the sense that Israel and the UAE are, and in the sense that much of Europe is not. I'm confused as to why Filipinos are protesting against taking out the Iranian regime; it's a direct blow to Chinese expansionism, as well as the jihadist groups in the south. But America's taking out the weakest links in the Russian-Chinese-Iranian-Venezuelan axis. A short-term rotation away from East Asia doesn't necessarily mean it's a bad strategic move.

comrade1234: The USA has 11 carrier groups.

calvinmorrison: Oh the Philippines, an actual American colonial holding!

coldtea: "North Korea couldn't stop the pull-out. Now, Manila must figure out if it is indeed a strategic partner or just another supply depot""strategic partner"? LMAO

clerkclerk123: I admire your honesty and confidence regarding America's return to the path of imperialism. If only every American were as honest as you.

ourmandave: The Phillippines? Get in line.Dear Leader is currently threatening Cuba with regime change, because reasons.I wonder what stupid obvious lies the administration will tell when they start blowing up that sovereign country and killing or kidnapping it's leaders.

watwut: China and Russia are benefiting from this war. It is not a blow to them, it is a gift for them.> I'm confused as to why Filipinos are protesting against taking out the Iranian regime;Iranian regime was not "taken out". It does not seem like it will be taken out either. Its leader got changed for younger more hard line one with the same name. Edit: also Filipinos are much more affected by oil crisis then USA. It is literally an emergency crisis for them.> But America's taking out the weakest links in the Russian-Chinese-Iranian-Venezuelan axis.Venezuela is under exactly same regime as before. Maduro got changed for Delcy Rodríguez, keep regime intact. Trump got personally richer, but that is it.

iso1631: Trump took out an 87 year old man, converting him into a martyr and ruining any chance of change for another generation, all while causing massive spikes in the price of oil and thus inflation, and of course sacrificing a few US soldiers in the way while he bombed hundreds of kids.And nearly half of the US supports this.

hrimfaxi: I didn't believe your nearly half statement but yep https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/10/us/politics/polls-wars-us...

dlahoda: Why do you expect lies?

ben_w: Not op, but still: I expect Trump to lie because he's a pathological liar, who lies about stuff even when there's no apparent benefit to him to have done so.

iso1631: Very good at fighting last centuries wars. Then Millennium Challenge 2002 came outOf course now we have cheap drones, putting massive asymmetric financial power. Every time Iran fires a $1k drone, America fires a $1m missile to stop it.That's a great way to lose a war of attrition.America has been losing wars for 50 years, from Vietnam to Afghanistan. 11 carrier groups or 110 doesn't make any difference.

hattmall: I'm curious what you think about Iran killing 30,000+ protestors in the streets last month, going to hospitals to kill the injured, and continuing to review video footage to actively seek out and kill scores of 2+ million protestors?Personally I find it strange that with all the vocal detestation of "Nazis" so many people aren't in favor of intervening when an undeniably fascist regime commits the largest mass murder since the early days of the Holocaust and has no plans to stop the killing.

noduerme: Ruining any chance of another generation to do what? Get shot in the street for protesting? Get imprisoned and murdered for showing their hair in public? Become a martyr to the cause of a dead revolution that provided nothing for its people?What exactly was ruined for the next generation of Iranians, by taking out that 87 year old man?

YCpedohaven: it’s so obviously a farce when you’re bombing girls school and when Israel starts hitting oil fields, suddenly fucking Lindsey Graham wants restraint.

piva00: > South Korea and the Philippines are both "capable allies" in the sense that Israel and the UAE are, and in the sense that much of Europe is not.Most of Europe combined (meaning the EU + the most closely aligned non-EU countries) are a much more formidable force than the UAE or Israel... You can't compare using individual European countries since in a hot scenario the vast majority of the EU countries would band together, and the movement towards military integration has already been started.The US never had a period without flexing its muscles after the Cold War, you can't say that there were 20 years of "soft power is all you need" while keeping wars like Iraq/Afghanistan for 20 years, keeping spending more on the military than the next 10-20 countries combined.The trouble is that the US has lost the plot, there's no value or vision to defend, it hollowed itself out with hyperfinancialisation since the 80s, the consequence is that there's no rallying inspirational point anymore. It doesn't have a "hook" to attach its vision of the future, I have no idea what's the vision of the USA for the future except for "generating wealth".As a nation it just seems to be lost, butting heads while moving backwards.

nebula8804: >The trouble is that the US has lost the plot, there's no value or vision to defend, it hollowed itself out with hyperfinancialisation since the 80s, the consequence is that there's no rallying inspirational point anymore. It doesn't have a "hook" to attach its vision of the future, I have no idea what's the vision of the USA for the future except for "generating wealth".I'm not entirely sure I buy this. Everything you said feels true, and it's happening in the moment. But I think you're missing the forest for the trees. The way you wrote "hyperfinancialisation" makes me think you are European (German?)I'd imagine a vision for the country would be explained at places like World Expo right? In 2025 their booth (developed during Biden years even though it launched during Trump) gave a "semi" okay idea of where the country is placing its vision. Was it expressed well at the Expo? Not entirely sure, but it was there.Historically, they didn't need to really do much at these Expos because who doesn't know the U.S.? And who doesn't know what the country is about? But I guess with the increasing decline of the U.S., they now have to 'advertise' themselves and explain to people what the underlying vision is.In the end, the underlying theme seems to be "optimistic collaboration led by American innovation". Yeah I know its hard to picture this in the moment after everything that has happened in the last year but as the Biden years ended this was the thinking among government officials.[1]:https://youtu.be/NVCcdeYMzpU?t=183Watching this video a year later, it just seems so comical that this whole vision of "collaborative innovation": of the future being a collaborative project, with America wanting to lead it but not alone, and the slogan 'Imagine what we could create together' just seems comical after everything that's occurred in the last year. I guess it remains to be seen if this vision will hold once Trump is out of office.

krige: I'm curious why do you think that a half-assed undercooked invasion at Israel's beck and call is the only possible solution to this issue when we have ample historical evidence that invading Middle East literally never worked?

ben_w: Mm. Reminds me of something I saw a while back, can't remember enough to search for it though.During the Cold War, there was an easy "US good, USSR bad" pattern for the world to be inspired by, but with the fall of the Soviet Union, the rest of the world no longer needs to (or even can if it wanted to) rally around a call of "hey, at least we're not the USSR".Now we don't have the USSR in the picture, what does the USA offer? Much of the rhetoric I see from it these days is "We're not China", and true, you're not, but when we're looking in from the outside there's a loss of scale and rightly or wrongly the ICE detention camps and exporting of people to CECOT, looks much the same as Uighurs being put in Xinjiang internment camps.Meanwhile, increasing fractions of my hardware, from injection moulded widgets to laser welding kits, from 3D printers and PV to computers and smartphones, is made by Chinese firms, so China looks increasingly like the place where stuff actually happens, and conversely the USA looks increasingly like the place where grand visions are pronounced only to fail from lack of awareness of how to engineer anything or what customers really benefit from (e.g. Juicero, Metaverse, Cybertruck).

fakedang: > Then we had about 20 years of politicians who thought the soft power stuff was all you neededActually, about 9 years. Then Afghanistan happened, followed by Iraq. Hard power was back baby!> The security concerns haven't changed, but the way of dealing with them has.The security concerns were never there to begin with, unless you mean the security concerns of Israel. With the US as the hegemon, it is in the US's interests to maintain the security of key trade corridors, the most volatile and important of which is the Hormuz strait (arguably even more than the Suez). Post Iranian Revolution, every action of the US has only served against its interests, to further destabilize the corridor - whether it was funneling weapons to Saddam, invading Saddam 20 years later, not to mention the constant sabre-rattling against Iran throughout.> I'm confused as to why Filipinos are protesting against taking out the Iranian regime; it's a direct blow to Chinese expansionism, as well as the jihadist groups in the southLol no. Getting involved with Iran means fighting a country that has every intention to bog down the US in a long war, at no cost consideration for its citizens. China loves the war - it's a repeat of Vietnam. China is literally dishing out intelligence to Iran and helping them skirt sanctions. Also Iran, which is Shia, isn't involved with the terror groups in Mindanao (which are hardline Sunni and funded by the US GCC allies).> But America's taking out the weakest links in the Russian-Chinese-Iranian-Venezuelan axisThe weakest link in the axis was literally Venezuela - proximity to the US, a hated president, and competing factions vying for power. Well, at least before the US decided it was a dandy idea to kidnap Maduro.> A short-term rotation away from East Asia doesn't necessarily mean it's a bad strategic move.The Iran war is going to be anything but short-term, as the Iranians have stated. Even if the US wants to exit the campaign, the Iranians will not let them, and if the US decides to unilaterally stop bombing Iran, it leaves Israel open to the Iranians, which is something Israel and AIPAC won't let the US do.The Asian allies know this, which is why everyone from South Korea to Japan to Philippines to Australia has been worried - because they know that this leaves fewer American resources for them. The US has already begun diverting THAADs and Patriots from SK to the Middle East because they've been depleted. The UAE was begging around for interceptors from Italy (at a 125% premium) and then Russia, because the US failed to provide for its "capable allies". The Gulf states internally already see the US, including US defence products, as unreliable in supply and are already moving to lock in deals with EU providers such as Rheinmetall.

noduerme: > it's a repeat of VietnamI think this is a bizarre comparison. The people of Vietnam hated the French colonial occupation, and most of them despised the American-backed regime as well. They were fighting a 20-year-long anti-colonial war for independence (something that China, by the way, does not want any of the people they've colonized to emulate).On the contrary, there's every indication that the people of Iran, as well as Venezuela, legitimately hate their repressive regimes and want nothing more than a chance to overthrow them. This isn't imposing regime change on some country that had never thought of it. It's clearing the path for the people of that country to execute regime change for themselves.In that sense, our role here is quite a lot more like the Soviets in Vietnam, than America in Vietnam, or of either country in Afghanistan. We're not in the position of needing to prop up a puppet regime or find ethnic groups or exogenous actors. All we really need to do is target the existing oppressors.>> if the US decides to unilaterally stop bombing Iran, it leaves Israel open to the Iranians, which is something Israel and AIPAC won't let the US do.Stop with the AIPAC > blaming Israel for getting America into this. Israel did great work taking out Iran's defenses and gaining air superiority in the previous 12-day war, and it was only held back from continuing by the US - temporarily losing the total control it held. Furthermore, in no way is Israel going to be open to attack after this, whether or not the US remains involved.Consider what happens if this war does succeed in weakening the Iranian regime to the point where the people can come back into the street and overthrow it: Russia loses its drone and missile manufacturer, the West has a bargaining chip in oil against China's control of rare earths, and conceivably there is a broad peaceful order in the Middle East between Sunnis, Shia and Jews, all relatively Western-facing, potentially progressive and aligned with the US and Europe. Would that be a terrible outcome?

fhub: Israel tracked him and killed him with a Blue Sparrow missile.

tartoran: It’s indisputable that the Iranian regime is horrid to Iranians (most of them). But what the US just did is actually strenghtening the grip of the Islamic regime, they get unified against an attacker, their aging aytolah turned into a martyr and a new young one was put in place, oil fields set on fire, plenty of indiscriminate bombing on civillians and so on. This is a major fuck-up.

nebula8804: Maybe the Asian countries can finally get together and hash out a way to deal with Israel. It seems like an insurmountable problem. The elites in the US either fall in line or when they try to push back they are eventually forced to relent(ex. Musk in the early Twitter days).This entire saga has been a wake up call to the middle eastern states. They thought all the money they paid to the US over the years got them a first class ticket when in reality they are sitting way back in economy.There aren't many options on the table. Cozy up to China? Maybe the middle eastern and OECD countries can do it but not the Asian countries. The right strategy would be to join forces to try and help the US get back on track because what other superpower is there? And that means somehow dealing with Israel as they are going to continue causing trouble for everyone.

piva00: > I'm not entirely sure I buy this. Everything you said feels true, and it's happening in the moment. But I think you're missing the forest for the trees. The way you wrote "hyperfinancialisation" makes me think you are European (German?)I'm Brazilian-Swedish, living in Sweden.> I'd imagine a vision for the country would be explained at places like World Expo right? In 2025 their booth (developed during Biden years even though it launched during Trump) gave a "semi" okay idea of where the country is placing its vision. Was it expressed well at the Expo? Not entirely sure, but it was there.A vision for the country is something that's built upon, across governments and party lines since it's "what the nation is about" more than what policies are being voted on by diverging ideologies, it's something to tether a nation's spirit onto. Advertising something on a World Expo is just advertisement, it's the actions over a longer period of time that can be linked to a vision that actualises it, and that's what I don't see from the USA at all.> In the end, the underlying theme seems to be "optimistic collaboration led by American innovation". Yeah I know its hard to picture this in the moment after everything that has happened in the last year but as the Biden years ended this was the thinking among government officials.That line couldn't reek more of corporate-speak than it does, it's something you'd read on a PowerPoint slide from McKinsey. It doesn't inspire anyone, reading it doesn't make you feel "yeah, I want to buy into that". It just cements more of my thought that the vision is "get wealthy", it just states an end without inspiring any of the means for it.Also, the Biden years already feel long gone, it could've been the beginning of re-steering the ship into a brighter path, barely a bit more than a year without Biden and nothing from the previous USA is recognisable.> Watching this video a year later, it just seems so comical that this whole vision of "collaborative innovation": of the future being a collaborative project, with America wanting to lead it but not alone, and the slogan 'Imagine what we could create together' just seems comical after everything that's occurred in the last year. I guess it remains to be seen if this vision will hold once Trump is out of office.Exactly, it's comical that it was kept as a pitch given everything we are seeing from post-Trump USA. It's really hard for me to imagine coming back from this, even more if it does last for another 3 years.

noduerme: I think you underestimate how much they hate the regime and how happy they are to see us trying to eliminate it.

noduerme: It's a real problem that Trump himself and his movement seem incapable of articulating a positive vision of America. It's an equally serious problem that the opposition are equally negative about the country, its history, its promise and potential. Both factions seem to be serving as negative emissaries. No one has less vision of America than MAGA; and no one hates it more than the Democratic Socialists. This isn't really an accident, in my opinion. And it's not just due to "hyperfinancialization" or growing economic inequality or racial disparities - all of those are issues.Call me paranoid, but I think it's due to one of our greatest strengths being hijacked. Our free speech laws and the openness of our society, the total non-filtering of information - which I support - have created a fertile ground for sophisticated propaganda from China and Russia, Iran and Qatar, to overwhelm the brains of a lot of people on both sides of our political divide through massive social media psyops that have gone on for a decade.It's reached the point that very few people in America can state why America is a good thing, even for its own citizens, let alone for the rest of the world.But not very long ago, this was not the case. And there are excellent arguments to be made for why America should remain the keystone of the global order: It's inclusive, it's progressive, its system has been a miraculous engine of economic growth for everyone in its orbit. But the easiest and most banal reason, one which no one says out loud is: If not America, which country would you rather have exercising power to create some kind of international order? The people who think everything America does is automatically evil haven't really made much study of what life is like under the realistic alternatives to that question.

wolvoleo: > If not America, which country would you rather have exercising power to create some kind of international order? The people who think everything America does is automatically evil haven't really made much study of what life is like under the realistic alternatives to that question.Ideally no country of course but a multilateral organisation like the UN.Definitely not the unilateral bully that is the US right now. That's not even the least bad option anymore. It is what the US was during the second Iraq invasion, everyone knew it was based on lies but we went along anyway because the US still had soft power. But Trump has thrown all that away.

watwut: The protests were result of moderate fractions rising, trying to get power. That is over for now.

noduerme: Doesn't seem over when you see video of people shouting from balconies all over Tehran

noduerme: >> Its leader got changed for younger more hard line one with the same nameWho hasn't been seen or heard from yet. I'd give this a few more days before pronouncing it a done deal.

watwut: His father, wife and kid were killed in bombing. He was leading the crackdown on protests. There is very little ground to think he will be making some easy deals. He was chosen as a middle finger to Trump.

noduerme: I think the IRGC chose him because he's already dead, and they want Israel to go hunting for a dead guy. If he's not dead, which would be some sort of miracle, he isn't doing much now.And no one needs a deal with him. The Iranian regime doesn't want a deal, and there's no deal to be had.

watwut: > It's clearing the path for the people of that country to execute regime change for themselves.That is fundamentally untrue. In Venezuela, regime ended up completely intact, except the change on the top. There is no "clearing the path" and there is no "regime change".In Iran, protests stopped. The lead was replaced by more hardline lead. Nationalists now wont go against the regime, even if they dislike it.If they loose control over country, there will be civil war and unrest, but all chances of some moderates consolidating power went down. Or, even more likely, regime wont fail and will have stronger grip over the country.> Russia loses its drone and missile manufacturer,This war is massive gift to Russia. The sanctions are removed, the oil prices go up. Russia wants this war to go on as long as possible, it is like a lifeline for them.

noduerme: >> That is fundamentally untrue. In Venezuela, regime ended up completely intact, except the change on the top. There is no "clearing the path" and there is no "regime change".I think there was massive disappointment in Venezuela that we didn't go further, and that the regime is still in place. I'm extremely disappointed that we let it off there. I'm sick of America making promises to people, since Budapest, since Prague, since the Syrian rebels...>> In Iran, protests stopped. The lead was replaced by more hardline lead. Nationalists now wont go against the regime, even if they dislike it.In this case, I hope we don't let the people down. And I think it's far too soon to say that the protests stopped. The Basij are out in force, they're more heavily armed, and bombs are falling. Next week or next month, the entire situation may be different. The people are certainly waiting until the bombs stop. No one goes to protest in the middle of a war. The idea is to create the conditions so that when the bombing stops, the regime is too weak to kill 30,000 more people in the next protest.

nebula8804: >It's an equally serious problem that the opposition are equally negative about the country, its history, its promise and potential.I don't buy that at all. Mamdani's election is the latest example of a progressive left that is slowly making inroads and provides an extremely positive vision for the future based on inclusion and respect for all peoples. He is definitely rising to the occasion as well. His win was a 15 years of struggle starting with an extremely disorganized movement in Occupy Wall street, with many events in between to him getting elected as a democratic socialist in the finance capital of the US. His vision pursues economic justice as a way to empower people to build a positive future.But we don't need to just use him as an example. AOC was also pushing an extremely positive message in her famous campaign ad: a positive vision for the future: Green New Deal, efforts to invest in people and not just corporate graft and the same respect for people of all backgrounds(given her district has 50+ languages spoken there). She knocked out the guy that was the Democratic party's main money man link to the financial institutions that bribe both parties.[0]:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rq3QXIVR0bsHer victory followed decades of struggle of Bernie Sanders's vision who went from being a completely dismissable vision back in his days of trying to become Mayor of Burlington to now being a figure that the Democratic party is forced to recon with because he has built a solid movement in the next generation that has the drive to implement his original vision.> Call me paranoid, but I think it's due to one of our greatest strengths being hijacked. Our free speech laws and the openness of our society, the total non-filtering of information - which I support - have created a fertile ground for sophisticated propaganda from China and Russia, Iran and Qatar, to overwhelm the brains of a lot of people on both sides of our political divide through massive social media psyops that have gone on for a decade.Yeah this exists but at the same time are you seeing whats happening on the ground off the internet? Its people using whatever strained institutions are left to slowly hold people accountable and also driving towards a new vision by raising people like Mamdani. Everyone was surprised by his win...except the people on the ground who saw him go on a hunger strike years earlier to help taxi drivers committing suicide because they were trapped or working through the corrupt system to actually get a free bus line funded and helping real people.[1]: https://www.amny.com/nyc-transit/mta-five-bus-routes-fare-fr...

wolvoleo: Yes what Iran did is terrible.But if it was a country without oil it would have been no more than a byline in the media, as if it were Sierra Leone or something, let's be honest.

noduerme: Israel is a country without oil. Over 2 years, it killed 60,000 people in Gaza - about twice as many as the Iranian regime killed in 2 days. The former was described as genocide, the latter was widely ignored. And for 2 years, Israel's war against Hamas was the headline story every day on every media outlet in the world. There was no end of people screaming for intervention.You're right, no one pays attention to Sierra Leone, or Sudan, or Myanmar. And no one here or in the media would care that some country was fighting a war with the Iranian regime either, as long as the country country fighting it wasn't populated by Jews.

manyaoman: Why so many words to say "anyone who criticizes Israel is an antisemite"? If you really think Gaza gets too much attention, then instead of silencing others, why not just start talking about the injustices that you think are underrepresented.