Discussion

Miscellanea: The War in Iran

avereveard: It seems there's a flawed reading coming from a single point in time analysisRegion instability had ben regularly threatening freedom of navigation in the last five yearsAnd USA may not consider the individual country strategic, but cares deeply about freedom of navigation, because the single market is basically the pillar for their hegemony.Sarah Paine lectures give overall better lenses to look at this engagement.

bawolff: > And I do want to stress that. There is a frequent mistake, often from folks who deal in economics, to assume that countries will give up on wars when the economics turn bad. But countries are often very willing to throw good money after bad even on distant wars of choice.On the other hand isn't this how the russian revolution happened? An economic crisis due to a prolonged war leading to a revolution? While i wouldn't bet money on it, it seems at least possible that something similar could happen to Iran.

gostsamo: Actually, there are lots of revolutions in Europe after WWI, but keep in mind that in this case the populations were blaming their governments for starting or participating in an unnecessary war with monumental casualties. In this case, the Iran government has two useful scapegoats and any casualties could be easily ascribed to the idiots bombing girl schools and not to the idiots sending millions to their deaths under artillery fire.

yanhangyhy: The reason for the Iran war is very simple: Israel’s instigation, a potential strike against China, and Trump’s political immaturity.

george916a: Reason for Iran war is a fanatic Shiite regime on the verge of obtaining nuclear weapons. Same regime that vowed time after time to erase Israel. 100% justified war. Should’ve been done earlier in fact.

Synaesthesia: The purpose of the war is to destroy the Axis of Resistance, Iran, Hezbollah and its allies, the only force standing in the way of US/Israeli hegemony in the region.

Synaesthesia: He writes that the region is not very important to the USA. It's not, but it is a strategically important area, not only in terms of its location, at the nexus of Asia, Africa and Europe, but also because of the oil there.Now the US is not dependent on Middle Eastern Oil, but Japan, China and other countries are. So controlling the region will mean a lever of power over those regions.

kenjinp: This comment is simply not true from a US national interest perspective. The article explains why this was not done earlier.

georgemcbay: > Please understand me: the people in these countries are not important, but as a matter of national strategy, some places are more important than others.I assume/hope this was meant to say "the people in these countries are not [un]important"? (or just "are important")As an entirely secular person, I believe every innocent human life is important.

lmm: He's speaking from a military, America-first perspective (which I suspect may be somewhat affected, because he is hoping to convince people who sincerely think that way). The people in these countries are not strategically important.

unmole: > on the verge of obtaining nuclear weapons.WMD 2.0 The Electric Boogaloo.

righthand: > They did not and now we are all living trapped in the consequences.They (rich and well connected) did, but they won't have to suffer the consequences, everyone else will. The Pedo of the United States is now a billionaire that will walk away in 4 years shrugging his shoulders laughing all the way to the bank with them.Not one person that could stop it, did stop it. Congress is sitting on their thumbs pretending not to work for Israel and selling us out to big tech and defense spending.All the Baby Boomers are in the south enjoying the sunshine and shrugging their shoulders.

jazzyjackson: Secret fourth factor: a cabal of robber barons wants to remove American influence on the world stage and has bamboozled the MICC into firing off all its tomahawks before the real war even kicks off

socraticnoise: Isn't it interesting that the country that takes the nuclear threat most seriously and tries to prevent it is also the only country that has ever used nuclear weapons?

khhu2bnn: The amazing part to me is just the perceived invincibility this small circle within the US administration has. You can find dozens of articles with a search limited to Feb 1~Feb 27, plenty of analysis warning of the risks that have now become reality, everything - the strait, no revolution, further radicalization, critically low US stockpiles, abandoning other US partners, gulf destabilization, etc.In the fantasy imagination of some people, they really think you can take out some military targets of another country and then the oppressed masses will magically revolt, as they completely ignore the failed revolution just a month prior. Surround yourself with enough of these people while excluding and firing those who don't and this is what you get.

underdeserver: I don't understand what this article has to do with Hacker News.> for the United States this war was an unwise gamble on extremely long odds; the gamble (that the regime would collapse swiftly) has already failedRight off the bat this guy is wrong. Nobody in their right mind would bet that the regime would collapse swiftly. The US knew what Iran's military C&C looks like, and what their internal oppressive police forces look like.The US and Israel have been pummeling them continuously, and they're not done. So much so that the one opposition leader all the Iranians in exile are talking about urged Iranians to stay home and not protest - yet.

Sniffnoy: > Right off the bat this guy is wrong. Nobody in their right mind would bet that the regime would collapse swiftly.That "nobody in their right mind" would bet this does not, in fact, contradict his assertion that somebody did!

fruit2020: So it’s not about nuclear weapons?

pocksuppet: > I don't understand what this article has to do with Hacker News.The continuing slow collapse of the United States is extremely relevant to all things technology and business. The source of all our funding may be cut off. It's important to monitor what's going on there.

GolfPopper: >on the verge of obtaining nuclear weaponsI've been hearing that line, from the same person for thirty years:https://www.news18.com/world/weeks-away-by-next-spring-video...

ivan_gammel: >On the other hand isn't this how the russian revolution happened?It happened because Russian empire (and German empire) lacked state security apparatus adequate to the threat. It was fixed by most authoritarian states after that, so e.g. Soviet Union survived for 70 years despite many popular uprisings, which happened almost the whole time of its existence. It went down only when elites in Moscow destroyed it from within.

GolfPopper: I would not wager money on a revolution coming from this war, either. But if a revolution does come as a result of the war, it seems at least as likely to be in the United States as in Iran.

defrost: Russia? France? The UK? India? Pakistan? Israel? China?There are many countries that have used nuclear weapons.If you're talking about the USofA they didn't try that hard at preventing Iran from enriching - they tore up a perfectly good and well functioning monitoring agreement at the start of Trump's first term.

pm90: Its what happens when you surround yourself with incompetent yes men.

Hikikomori: Are we talking about Iran or US?

ggm: Right off the bat your response raises questions because if the US leadership knew from day one this was a protracted fight then they stand having made entirely contradictory statements regarding their intent and expectations in that regard.

Hikikomori: Lying is second nature to them.

yanhangyhy: its always oil and 'freedom'

tobiasdorge: A comment on this post by aerodog calling Bret a "Jew" for calling the Iranian government odious was the first comment on this post but was either removed by them or a mod. Would be good to keep up so that people can see these clowns.

lostlogin: User > showdead

pocksuppet: Everyone should have this option turned on.

hackandthink: That all makes a lot of sense. Mr. Devereux is being more realistic this time than he was at the start of the war in Ukraine.My takeaway from the war in Ukraine is: it’s going to get worse and last longer than anyone ever imagined.

cakealert: Similar to how Hollywood buys an option on a movie but may never exercise that option, Iran sought to do the same with Nukes. I don't see how that strategy can work out well when the agent espouses malice and may not be deterred by MAD and can also with some probability be able to exercise the nuclear option in stealth.This is likely the main reason North Korea was allowed to become a nuclear state, holding Seoul hostage (Suez parallel?) was not the reason, it was a cost. Ultimately it was decided that NK leaders will not go full death cult.The ideology held by Iran leaders is demonstrably death cultish. I don't believe there is a world where they would be able to acquire nukes, it's only a question of the cost (attack them while they are weak or have Israel nuke them when they get too close - how long before Russia nukes Ukraine after that?). Some people somehow manage to convince themselves that the death cult is just words when all the evidence is to contrary.

scott_w: Honestly, the way this administration has behaved makes me think someone there is obsessed with playing Total War and thinks that’s how the real world works. It’s all about winning battles and painting the map red, white and blue (Greenland, Venezuela, now Iran) with no thought to what they want to achieve beyond that.

decimalenough: As the article discusses in detail, if the US actually cares about freedom of navigation, the war was a massive own goal because it looks extremely likely to grant the current Iranian regime de facto control of the Strait.

bigyabai: As someone with it on, I'm very glad off is the default.

krige: While I agree that a revolution in Iran is not impossible, I rather doubt that whoever comes next will be western friendly and moderate; after the indscriminate military action of the past few weeks they are probably more likely to get ayatollah'd again.

shubhamjain: I always wondered what alternative reality are people supporting the administration are living in and this right here is the answer. As someone put it, Americans love to fool themselves in believing they are the ones 'winning' because they killed more people even if it means completely failing at the original objective.

energy123: Because Iran has been repeatedly stopped from doing it through cyber (stuxnet), sanctions, assassinations of nuclear scientists, and bombings.Israel said the same thing about Pakistan many decades ago, and they were the only country trying to stop it from happening, but they were blocked from doing so.That's the only reason we don't hear "Pakistan has been weeks away from a nuke for 30 years" in these annoyingly ignorant internet discussions.I find it so puzzling that a country, which has violated the NPT multiple times, can enrich uranium to 60%, according to the IAEA, inside bunkers deep within mountains, and people with a straight face can say that they're not building a nuclear weapon. I think less of these people's basic intellectual integrity.

littlecranky67: Not a single mention of the 15.000-40.000 thousand (depending on which sources you believe) massacred unarmed protestors killed 8 weeks ago by that regime.

bluealienpie: Nor the hundreds of thousands murder by Israel in a genocide, which is why his strategic analysis doesn't see the gulf states are at risk of collapse if they engage Iran on what is perceived to be on Israel's behalf.

scott_w: Then I’d suggest you read the article because he absolutely mentions it, twice in fact.

bigyabai: > I don't understand what this article has to do with Hacker News.Judging by your comment history it seems to be the majority of what you discuss. Maybe you're not the best judge of what HN finds interesting or salient.

krige: As a consolation prize we can mention the unknown amount of unarmed civillians bombed by US+Israel forces instead.

ajewhere: I stll dont understand what you are doing 10000 miles away from the presumed borders of your country, and even more why on earth you think you have the right to dictate to 90 million people (let aside the rest of the world) how to govetn themselves.I suppose it is some right given to you from above, now where have I seen this before..

bluealienpie: It was never about nuclear weapons, Netanyahu has been saying Iran was one week away for over 30 years. Europe goes along as an excuse to support politically unpopular war to maintain US support for Ukraine.

nowaytheydid: > then they stand having made entirely contradictory statements regarding their intent and expectations in that regardTime Traveler, rushing to a computer after seeing a Skyrim for Sale poster and seeing this post: "WHAT YEAR IS IT!!!??"

Hikikomori: When Trump left the agreement Obama made with Iran all US intelligence agencies agreed that Iran was not working on a bomb. Netanyahu has screeched about Irans destruction for 40 years, he was there to lie to congress about WMDs in Iraq. This conflict is engineered.

D_Alex: >Iran would have to respond and thus would have to try to find a way to inflict ‘pain’ on the United States to force the United States to back off. But whereas Israel is in reach of some Iranian weapons, the United States is not.This is too complacent for my liking. Every rusty trawler is a viable launch platform for Shahed type drones (operational range ~2500 km per Wikipedia). Nearly every US oil refinery and LNG terminal are on the coast. And then there are floating oil platforms (e.g.: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perdido_(oil_platform))The article then says:>One can never know how well prepared an enemy is for something.And:>And if I can reason this out, Iran – which has been planning for this exact thing for forty years certainly can.I'll leave it here for y'all to ponder.

fruit2020: What would you expect Europe to do? It’s not like they openly support this war. The Iranian diaspora supports it, there is the secularism element, but the US doesn’t care about the Iranian people anyway

decimalenough: The diaspora is happy about the regime being targeted. They will be much, much more ambivalent if the US starts targeting power infrastructure and innocent people in hospitals etc start dying en masse.

ardit33: Did you even read it? He mentions that, and also He says that the regime is 'odious' right in the beginning, and is looking more from the US self interest and strategic perspective."It certainly did not help that the United States had stood idle while the regime slaughtered tens of thousands of its opponents, before making the attempt,""Now, before we go forward, I want to clarify a few things. First, none of this is a defense of the Iranian regime, which is odious. That said, there are many odious regimes in the world and we do not go to war with all of them. Second, this is a post fundamentally about American strategy or the lack thereof and thus not a post"

Hikikomori: They're obsessed with what real white men did the in past centuries, ie old style imperialism, not the current US state of imperialism.

csb6: There is no evidence Iran has an active nuclear weapons program or has had one since the early 2000s, which even the article's author seems not to know. They have enriched uranium that could be further processed to make weapons, but there is no evidence they are doing so. (and no, Israeli government/military sources are not reliable. They have every interest in lying about Iran having/nearly having nuclear weapons)

beloch: At present, gasoline prices in China have risen by 11% since the war started. In the U.S., they have risen by 33%.The U.S. is dependent on oil and the oil market is global. Even if the U.S. is a net exporter of oil, Americans still pay increased prices for pretty much everything as a result and the economy suffers. The only way around this would be a scheme in which domestic oil producers are forced to sell to American refiners at pre-war prices, similar to the "National Energy Program" that was tried in Canada during the '80's. (Spoiler: It didn't turn out well.)Yes, the U.S. is less likely to see its pumps run dry and U.S. oil companies are going to be very happy with the increased prices. However, unless it goes the NEP route, U.S. companies are going to export more oil creating shorter supply at home. Americans will pay the same high prices everyone else will be paying. As we're seeing now, the U.S. might actually see even higher price increases than countries like China.