Discussion

Exclusive / Israel is running critically low on interceptors, US officials say

thisislife2: Interesting that Iran has started using cluster munition missiles to strike Israel. Apparently Iran, Israel and US are some of the few countries that haven't signed the international convention banning cluster munitions. Israel has also used cluster munitions against the Hezbollahs.

themafia: Then it was a very strange choice to go to war with a neighbor that's known to have massive stockpiles of missiles.Maybe it's just me, but if I were in such a suboptimal defensive materiel position, I would try diplomacy first. In fact, I would make it my mission to be the world recognized leader in diplomacy.

mohsen1: Neighbor?!

jazzpush2: I.e. time American tax dollars to save the day!

XorNot: Countries tend to sign munition restrictions when they don't use those munitions or are in a position where they wouldn't be useful.The map of countries which sign the convention against landmines is extremely obvious in that context.

spwa4: Do you honestly believe Israel hasn't done that for decades?

Nevermark: I am certainly not defending Iran, but one of their gripes had merit. Israel’s illegal annexation and settling of land that wasn’t theirs.And their policy of overlooking violence against the previous inhabitants. Genocide slow burn.So I don’t know what good any diplomacy could have been in that context.

mcs5280: Sounds like they only went into this with concepts of a plan

markdown: > are in a position where they wouldn't be useful.No such country exists. So long as enemies are likely to put boots, wheels, or tracks on the ground in your country, landmines are extremely useful, extremely cheap, and extremely effective.

Spooky23: Arrogance, and using war to avoid consequences for personal bad behavior of the leader.

glob_roman: "Iran is close to nuclear device, diplomacy doesn't work, should we attack?" -"no, we don't have enough interceptors. let them become nuclear."That's what your logic sounds like

Qem: I hope they have their Cuito Cuanavale[1] moment and follow the steps of South Africa in replacing their own version of the apartheid regime with democracy.[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Cuito_Cuanavale

UltraSane: If you think Israel is "apartheid" what do you consider Iran to be?https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_of_religion_in_Iran#Re...

breppp: On the other side, iran's launch capability had fallen by 95% since the start of the warIran is actually attacking their former close friends at the gulf uninvolved civilian population centers more often than it attacks Israel

dr00tb: You seriously believe Israel has conducted good-faith diplomatic endeavors for decades? A history of terrorattacks and extrajudicial killings in neighboring countries and even European[1] countries tell a different story.[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lillehammer_affair

UltraSane: I think Israel is fighting for its survival against enemies that would absolutely destroy it if they could.

glob_roman: Israel has many Arab Muslims in the parliament: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Arab_members_of_the_Kn...Israel has supreme court Arab Muslim judge: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khaled_KabubThe "apartheid" only exists in the imagination of antisemites like you.

UltraSane: Iran severely persecutes Baha'is with bans on higher education, employment, and imprisonment. The Iranian government often labels unrecognized religious minorities as "heretics" or "apostates," subjecting them to harassment and violence.

cpgxiii: The point is that almost all of the signatories considered themselves to be immune to a "real war" in their futures at the time they signed. E.g. basically all of the European signatories assumed that the end of the cold war and existence of NATO would ensure the end of any possible threat. Given that assumption, as obviously flawed as it was, signing on to a ban was cheap PR (literally cheap, too, because it meant they could divest those weapons and their delivery mechanisms to reduce defense expenditures).

hersko: > Genocide slow burn.So slow it's going backwards.

wodenokoto: They are attacking close friends who literally harbor the armies attacking Iran.The logic seems very straight forward imho. Attack the US army bases and pester the nations that allows those bases in hopes that they might ask the us to get bend.

breppp: > The logic seems very straight forward imho. Attack the US army bases and pester the nations that allows those bases in hopes that they might ask the us to get bendIf only they attacked the American bases as opposed to also attacking civilian infrastructure such as oil facilities and residential neighborhoodsIf only they had skipped gulf countries who had pushed the US not to strike and refused to let the US use their bases to attack Iran (all of them)If only they hadn't attacked countries without any bases such as AzerbaijanThen I think your arguments would have had more merit

Hikikomori: Israel killed Irans negotiators just last year. How can you be this deluded.

saint_yossarian: Do you honestly believe they did?> Iran and Israel have maintained no diplomatic relations since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, and their relationship has been characterized by hostility ever since.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_relations

breppp: that's untrue by the way, Israel sold weapons to Iran and supported it with intelligence against Iraq after 1979

spwa4: You also have the large number of countries that sign treaties, then just ignore them. Iran is an example of a nation that signs UN treaties, then openly boast about violating them.Iran signed the human rights treaties ... and openly executes gays and minors. They boast about this publicly.

tastyface: Is continuing to apply violence against these enemies likely to lead to a good end result? What is the end state?I think we are fast approaching an era where weapons of mass destruction, by way of cheap killbot swarms, are trivially accessible to any nation state. Without radical diplomacy, I fear the entire Middle East -- Israel included -- is on a path to total destruction.

breppp: which is exactly why european countries threatened by russia are starting to withdraw from the treaty, five had recently announced so

spaghetdefects: I consider Iran to led and inhabited by indigenous people and not foreign colonizers.

richbell: Is the implication that someone can't dislike both?

spwa4: They've attacked everyone they possibly could with ZERO regard for anything. They attacked Cyprus! They've attacked Turkey. They've attacked Afghanistan (are you seriously going to claim Afghanistan is harboring the US army?) They've attacked everyone they possibly could attack, zero exceptions.Next time all the gulf countries will know: get America and everyone else to launch attacks against Iran from your soil. Make sure to participate. Why? Iran will attack everyone regardless of alliances, who attacks, whether anyone attacks at all, what bases exist, whether or not they participate, or whether they avoid hostilities. So obviously, it's better to be part of the hostilities against Iran, to have an army on your soil that will protect at least some of your territory.

spaghetdefects: They're attacking US/Israel assets in all of those countries. It's effective too, the US is pulling out and showing that they are not a reliable ally. Just today the US told all US citizens to leave Iraq.

spaghetdefects: Where are you getting that 95% number from? Given that Trump has announced multiple times that the US has "won the war", I don't see how that could possibly be credible. Iran continues to launch successful attacks against Israel and Israel/US assets across the entire region.

steve-atx-7600: I think it can be as simple as if you defeat your enemy first, they can’t defeat you or continue to threaten you.

spwa4: So wait ... you're going to use terror attacks and extrajudicial killings in foreign countries as an argument to defend Iran? Iran is responsible for the civil war in Lebanon, and thus for at least hundred thousand dead in extrajudicial killings. So your argument, even if we accept everything as 100% true ... Iran is at least 1000x more guilty than Israel. Or just take [1] ...So it seems strange to use this as an argument to defend Iran. Bad faith, even.As for diplomacy: Iran signs treaties ... then just refuses to uphold them. For example, Iran signed, then pretty openly violated it's nuclear non-proliferation treaty obligations [2], same with the famous nuclear deal.But, even where it comes to pretty basic things: Iran signed the human rights treaties, including the Geneva convention, and hangs gays and minors as a matter of course (according to amnesty #1 worldwide with hundreds of minors executed, and actually increasing the rate over time), attacks religious minorities, women, the government has a side business in kidnapping foreignors ...Or other treaties. Iran signed freedom of navigation treaties, and has for decades violated them. Hell, Iran violates the international telecommunications union treaty.The problem: Iran cannot be negotiated with, for the simple reason that they do not respect deals they make. There's no point in negotiating since their behavior does not change when they make deals. They make promises, and ignore them. They sign treaties, and boast openly about violating them.[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_diplomat_terror_plot_t...[2] https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/25/06/gov2025-38.pd...

Hikikomori: You failed to mention that Iran violated the deal only after Trump withdrew the US from it...Its hard to negotiate with Iran when Israel keeps killing their negotiators.

excalibur: Let's send them thousands of tiny violins.

Zaheer: Keep in mind who pays for the replacements - U.S. Citizens to the tune of $317.9 billion over the last 70 years [1].https://taxpayersforpeace.org/

alephnerd: Because the alternative was Israel working with the PRC in the 2000s to build a competitor of what became the F35.The US and Israel were not aligned until the end of the Clinton administration, and in the 1980s-90s, Israel's IAI began working with the Deng administration to build [0] what became the J-10, JF-17, and J-20 project by selling the IAI Lavi's IP to what became the J-XX program in the 1990s.Even Israel's nuclear weapons program was sponsored and built by Charles De Gaulle much to the US's chagrin [1].[0] - https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1994-12-28-mn-13774-...[1] - https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/DOC_0000271219.pdf

spaghetdefects: There were plenty of other alternatives, starting with sanctions against Israel and followed with military action. The boomer generation's support for Israel created a very odd relationship that was entirely one way. Younger generations will certainly reverse this.

alephnerd: Despite what everyone keeps harping on within social media, the US-Israel relationship only really began in earnest after the Camp David Accords.Israel's primary defense partner until the 1990s was France.

gravisultra: They've attacked many US bases. They've also retaliated against US/Israeli business interests when the US/Israel did the same to Iran. Iran is waging a very strategic war and quite a moral one I might add. They even gave evacuation orders to Tel Aviv neighborhoods they were targeting military installations in.

gravisultra: Just like Nazi Germany.

spaghetdefects: Since its inception, Israel has waged war and acts of terror on all of its neighbors (and much of the rest of the world).

spaghetdefects: The US has given over $300B to Israel since its creation: https://usafacts.org/answers/how-much-foreign-aid-does-the-u...That does not count the money we've spent fighting their wars. We could have cut that off and sanctioned them at any time if they worked against our interests. Israel's strategy has been to compromise US leadership to stop this from happening, and until recently it was successful at that.

alephnerd: And as I mentioned, the alternative was regional powers like Israel, Saudi, and even Turkiye fully aligning with the PRC at the expense of the US by the 2000s.Israel worked on the J-XX program despite US attempts at sanctions. Saudi Arabia helped sponsor the Dongfeng ballistic missiles program and align Pakistan with the PRC.

tastyface: Defeating an enemy to the extent that they can't drive a truck full of AI killbots into a busy city center is an impossible task, barring de facto genocide. And if genocide is on the table, then Israel seals its fate regardless.Live by the sword, die by the sword. Old advice that continues to ring true.

hollerith: Non-Israelis also have people that would kill them if they could, so why are you restricting your comment to Israel?

wolvoleo: Diplomacy did work, they stopped and had regular IAEA inspections.

Hikikomori: Israel uses human shields for their bases? Imagine that.

wolvoleo: That only works against nation states. After what Israel have done in Gaza there's thousands of people who have lost family in a gruesome way and now have an axe to grind against Israel. This way it'll never stop.The best way to prevent terrorism is to not give people reasons to want you dead.Look at all the ethnic conflicts in the world. Like the troubles in Ireland. Did that stop because one side threw more bombs? No, it stopped because both sides agreed to talk.

chomp: The US is keeping aircraft in allied bases in Cyprus, and a permanent one in Turkey. Haven’t seen anything about Afghanistan. Iran’s attacks make sense to some degree.

tastyface: Israel is the nation currently waging war in Gaza, Iran, and Lebanon, backed by a superpower and secured by nuclear arms. It's clear they believe that they can simply fight their way out of their geopolitical predicament. I don't think they can.

breppp: > Iran is waging a very strategic war and quite a moral one I might addlol, they have been firing at countries such as Turkey and Azerbaijan then tried claiming "it didn't happen". They have lost control

breppp: For example here from March 10 detailing a progressive decline by 92% in ballistic missiles https://www.jpost.com/defense-and-tech/article-889435Previously I had seen 95% somewhere else but cannot find the link, but that's close enough.The reason why this is credible is Iran is limited by its amount of launchers, and Israel is very effective at destroying these. With complete air superiority and drones flying over, it's very easy to spot the heat signature for a launcher.Add to that the launchers that were effectively buried at the start of the war when the openings to Iran's underground missile storage facilities were bombed.https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-updat...

yongjik: A nation fighting for its survival doesn't randomly escalate by attacking a much bigger enemy.Instead, we frequently see it from dictators with a delusion of grandeur.

prewett: > Haven’t seen anything about Afghanistan.Yeah, that's because about the Taliban took it over about 5 minutes after the US left Afghanistan a few years ago. It was a complete mess.

bdangubic: to all degrees

alephnerd: As I mentioned earlier, this was because the alternative was Israel fully aligning with the PRC in the 1990s-2000s.During the 1980s-90s, Israel scrapped the IAI Lavi program and transferred it's IP to the Deng administration [0][1]. This was the precursor of the J-XX program which spawned the J-10, JF-17, and J-20. This continued until 2005 [2].Saudi Arabia did the same thing in the 1980s as well, working with the PRC on the Dongfeng program and helping formalize the Pakistan-China relationship [3].Even Israel's nuclear, jet fighter, and submarine program was due to a similar technology transfer Gaullist France did in the 1950s-60s [4] in order to retain strategic autonomy against the US and an ally to protect it's access to the Suez Canal in what became the Suez Crisis [5].On the other hand, the US successfully prevented similar attempts by South Korea and Taiwan in the 1970s-80s.The Cold War was a crazy time.[0] - https://www.nytimes.com/1993/10/12/world/israel-selling-chin...[1] - https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1994-12-28-mn-13774-...[2] - https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/...[3] - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-24823846[4] - https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/DOC_0000271219.pdf[5] - https://2001-2009.state.gov/r/pa/ho/time/lw/97179.htm

gravisultra: We give Israel money because of lobbying and blackmail, there was never any valid interest in the US supporting the Zionist colony. You'll note that we did not give Saudi Arabia $317.9 billion despite you saying that they "did the same thing".

UltraSane: "randomly escalate"?You DO realize how absurd this is. Iran isn't exactly subtle about its hatred for Israel and desire to destroy it and funding of the "Axis of Resistance".

yongjik: I don't think my statement was that hard to parse. How much Iran publicly hates Israel is irrelevant. Iran has been doing that for years, and there's no reason why Israel has to start bombing Iran this week.The fact that Israel can randomly escalate and the majority of Israelis cheer for it shows that Israel is never in an actual danger of annihilation and hasn't been for quite some time.

dogma1138: Iran is running around like a headless chicken, they gravely miscalculated their capabilities in 2024 and are paying the price ever since.

dogma1138: Iran attacked Israel directly twice, they are the ones which both escalated and miscalculated their position in the region.

Drupon: Good. Perhaps they will pay the ultimate price and face irreversible consequences that are decades overdue.

dogma1138: Iran will quite soon.

dogma1138: It’s because it’s one of the only things that effectively can hit Israel.They release the submunitions at much higher altitudes than they were intended so they spread across a much larger area and thus ineffective at hitting anything other than an urban target.But on the plus side for the Iranians they separate outside of the interception envelope of even the exo atmospheric interceptors Israel has so they actually get through even if each sub munition is only a nuance at best.