Discussion

New imagery suggests U.S. responsible for Iran school strike

OutOfHere: What is not clear is how the US received such faulty intelligence. Did some followed targets go hide in the school? If so, did Iran have a hand in engineering misleading intel for the US, or was it solely the US' doing?Today a boy's school in Iran was affected by an explosion. The intelligence received by the US chronically seems troubled.

Teever: This will be flagged within the hour. The dominance of the pro-American perspective on this site will prevent discussion about this.

readthenotes1: I'm not clear how it is tech related. There are plenty of other ways to get general news, hacker News is not your all-purpose News feed...

mullingitover: I get the feeling AI will be blamed for this, but I would not rule out the hypothesis that this was done intentionally in order to incite Iran to do something that bolsters support for the US regime’s actions. They desperately need domestic political support for this war and right now even the hardcore MAGA people are against it.

Kapura: It's a really warped mind that could think the best way to build domestic war support would be to blow up a girls' school, but frankly i haven't seen anything from the u.s. government that makes it sound implausible.

rustyhancock: I can't say I'm as conspiratorial as you.I don't really know how these systems work, perhaps I shouldn't speak without research.But it seems like a pretty basic error.The base has looks like 5 buildings in an L shape. 4 buildings where hit in an L shape.I can imagine the sites were picked from a satellite image and the wrong building was marked.Or in flight from the camera the wrong buildings were marked.It is our arrogance that we can blow up hundreds of buildings that makes us try and see meaning behind these mistakes.Instead we should just be far more cautious about blowing buildings up because these mistakes are inevitable.The perfect just war simply does not exist.

mothballed: I read secondhand that it was used for military purposes during the Obama years and it appears no one tagged it as now being used as a school for the past 10 years. No idea if it's correct, but it's plausible they were operating off of extremely stale intelligence.

BigTTYGothGF: Sounds like (war) criminal negligence.

fbelzile: Reporting from the CBC mentioned that the school was located within an area surrounded by other military buildings. The building housing the school was used for military purposes in the past.I think it's more likely that the US was going off of outdated intelligence.

mechanicalpulse: We should all do well to keep in mind the power of misinformation as well as the fog of war. Yesterday’s House vote on reigning in POTUS’s war powers was split along party lines and CNN skews heavily to the left. On top of that, the IRGC isn’t big on educating women. I am not sure any of us can truly know what is happening there.

myko: > CNN skews heavily to the left.Not for at least a decade, CNN is run by extremely hard right folks today

surgical_fire: Sounds too convoluted, and implies that those in power in the countries attacking Iran have a grand plan that goes beyond killing people in Iran.The explanation is simpler. They want death, so they are bombing shit indiscriminatelyHitting a school was not a mistake, it was the point.

_alternator_: I think a tragic mistake like this was foreseeable (in a vague sense), but I highly doubt that anyone intentionally bombed an elementary school full of children.The NYT had some good reporting on this, and you can see how the mistake was made. The elementary school used to be part of the IRGC base until 2016. Then it was fenced off and made an elementary school. The “shooter” (in this case, the USA) had a duty to check that the target was currently a valid military target. This verification, if it was done at all, was clearly the problem.I’m sure you have someone directly responsible for this mistake who is going to have a hard time living with themselves. But like I said, starting a war leads to inevitable tragedy, and I doubt the people who are indirectly responsible will ever recognize their culpability in this.

mdni007: The US government has now been taken over by religious extremists. The irony...

Simulacra: Wait a minute, I thought Iran admitted to doing this.

hntechbropseud: I do remember seeing a comment in a previous thread about this war. Some person (their profile said cofounder of docker or something???) and they posted a twitter link saying that it looked Iranian-caused. I don’t know what compels someone to take a twitter blue check as an authoritative source. But there were people peddling bizarre rumors without any real evidence

arvid-lind: they're only pretending to be religious extremists so they will get those votes, though. just like they pretend to be everything else. when the mask comes off and they call the shots, this is who Republicans are. Guardians of Pedophiles.

mandeepj: I’m afraid Israel will not hesitate from turning Iran into rubble just like what they did in Palestine.Israel definitely has a lot of moles in Iran. They weren’t bothered to confirm whether the target is a school. US earlier tried to turn it on Iran’s failed defense launch.

flyinglizard: Hamas shoots from a school, Israel attacks the school, it's Israel's fault. US attacks Iran, shoots at a school, it's Israel's fault.That's Israel Derangement Syndrome for you!

ryandrake: I remember being worried about James Dobson, Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell back in the 90s and how they were influencing politics from a distance. Thinking that was the worst it could be. Now we have [1].1: https://i.redd.it/z3yq85ff9eng1.png

Frost1x: I think it’s taken by greed focused extremists, they’re just trying to bide favor with some other extremist groups as their flail to maintain their power and attempt to expand it.

pinkmuffinere: > Teever 1 hour ago...

dzdt: I do think there is a strong possibility the people in charge in the US government believe an Iran state sponsored terrorism attack would be a political benefit to them. Such things boost support for the sitting President, and could also give political cover for additional authoritarian acts to help them retain power. Would they do the school attack on purpose? Maybe? But for sure they keep the war going until they generate the response they are looking for...

killjoywashere: that sounds plausible. For people not tracking, the concept of intelligence at play is "object based development". One analyst drops a label, brief synopsis, whatever, and it just sits there for the next person who comes along. The world view gets more accurate over time, but there's a recency error that's hard to measure until the probability function collapses with a measurement.

meheleventyone: The collapse in this case being the murder of children at school.

azinman2: Israel doesn't want/need Iran's land. It wants the regime toppled, and the country split apart 10 ways so the next regime is smaller and more checked.

ynac: Agreed with others here...and updating intel for primary targets is customary. Which obviously didn't happen here. The targeting cycle and the F2T2 cycle, dynamic targeting loops (probably) should have brought the latest intel about the school to light.As for whether it was AI - the US DOD Ethic's first tenent is Responsible - personnel remain responsible...

bradleyankrom: I found this research to be compelling, but ymmv based on the source: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/3/questions-over-minab...Edit: occurs to me that we are talking about _another_ school here, but I stand by what I said above wrt _that_ school.

jihadjihad: Yeah, Occam's Razor and all that. The current admin has proven itself to be poor players of games like checkers, let alone 5D chess.

mylifeandtimes: Sounds more like Bloody Stupid Jonssons Razor than Occams razor. The dumbest possible explanation is probably right.

ryandrake: It really doesn't matter whether it was a mistake or how the mistake was made. If it were your kid's elementary school that got blown up, would you say "Oh, well, it wasn't intentional. The bad guys just had outdated intelligence. These things happen."

kgwgk: > It really doesn't matter whether it was a mistakeIt does matter if people go around saying that “they want death, so they are bombing shit indiscriminately.”

surgical_fire: > “they want death, so they are bombing shit indiscriminately.”It's still the most probable explanation

plaidfuji: If this turns out to be true, which seems increasingly likely day by day, this will be the humanitarian price against which the rest of the campaign will be measured. The US will have ceded much of the moral high ground they claimed in avenging the slaughter of innocent protesters.

skeledrew: "There were dangerous people in that structure, and so it had to be handled in the most effective way" is what will probably be said about this.

epistasis: I wish I could find the video, because it's absolutely astounding what passes for what this administration thinks about public accountability, but I can't so let me paraphrase.When asked about the school by a reporter, the woman representing the Trump administration said something to the effect of "that's propaganda, there's been an update in that and I expect you to not spread propaganda". Of course, there was no actual update, no information conveyed beyond the bare contempt for the public and contempt for anyone asking about something embarrassing. It's an attempt to bully, of course, but just so incredibly weak and ineffectual.

surgical_fire: No, I firmly believe that decades of dehumanization of Iranians in particular and Muslims in general makes this sort of "tragic mistake" desirable.I don't think whoever was responsible for this gives many fucks about the lives of Iranians.If a foreign power bombed anything in the US and children died people would just consider them monsters, without further considerations. No one would be pondering about faulty intel.I refuse to launder the vileness of the aggressors here.

BigTTYGothGF: > On top of that, the IRGC isn’t big on educating womenThey're pretty lousy at the collegiate level (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women%27s_education_in_Iran) but: oh, come on.

lukan: Here is a bit more info:https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/3/questions-over-minab..."It can be said with a degree of confidence that, in 2013, the site was used exclusively as a military barracks with a strict security character, as there was no indication of an independent civilian use of any part of the complex.But this changed radically in 2016. Satellite images dated September 6, 2016 capture the main turning point, when new internal walls were created and built, fully and tightly separating the school building area from the rest of the military block."If they work with intelligence data older than 10 years, then this would still account to gross negligence, possibly counting as a war crime. But misstakes happen and they did used AI for target tracking.But the other interpretation is more dark. Because it was not just some school, but a school where the children of the IRGC go, the elite of the system. And Trump said he does not want a regime change, but rather someone from the current system who just bows to US demands. So the threat of killing all the leadership, anyone could be next - but also the threat to kill also their children and familiy until they surrender.To quote Hegseth:"no stupid rules of engagement,” “no politically correct wars,” and “no nation-building quagmire.”Threatening to kill also their families makes sense with this kind of language and logic. At some point you will find someone who values the life of his family higher than that of the nation and religion.But I do hope my theory is wrong.

zardo: Yeah, it being an honest mistake moves this down from a crime you should hang for to, also still a crime you should hang for.

xyzelement: CNN: "suggests that the United States military was responsible"US Military: investigating whether it's responsible."Mandeep": rants about Israel.

zocoi: Is it the lack of intensive AI analysis? AI can review satellite images over time and suggest if the building is civilian or not. School activities are very obvious

crazygringo: That is actually a point that rarely gets brought up -- we're so concerned about the dangers of AI in warfare, we don't necessarily stop to think of where they may be able to do a better job at avoiding lethal errors.

mmooss: > The world view gets more accurate over timeIs that true? I can imagine it's true at first, going from zero bits of information to 1, etc. But information rots over time, and eventually a collection of old information may rot faster than new information improves the world view.Also, the overall world view isn't especially important, at least not in this case. Each element's accuracy is what's important.Hopefully each tag is accompanied by a date, at least.

plaidfuji: This story is now being carried by WSJ.. the likelihood that it’s real only seems to grow each day. If true, this will be the humanitarian price the war is measured against, assuming the casualties don’t grow further.

mechanicalpulse: I can’t argue with you there. The Pentagon’s silence is deafening; I only want to caution myself as much as anyone against jumping to conclusions. It may be AI, it may be bad intelligence, it may be Russian counterintelligence, it may be an IRGC false flag, it may be a little bit of all of the above.

vunderba: When I saw that interview I immediately thought, people like Hegseth are why treaties like the Geneva Convention were created in the first place.

SauntSolaire: Disagree, negligence seems more likely

waffleiron: China and geopolitical enemies of the US doing horrible things regularly gets hundreds of votes. It’s quite clear that this argument is mainly used to defend the US and it’s allies.Just a single example of Russia, hundreds of votes and more than a thousand comments: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30458277Edit; just search for Russia, China or Iran on https://hn.algolia.com/ and you’ll find plenty of non tech stories.

readthenotes1: Whataboutism has no place in polite discussion: two, or more, wrongs don't make a right.

enronmusk: Exposing double standards is not whataboutism.

LightBug1: Can't cede moral high ground when that moral high ground is a claim no one believes in anymore. If they ever did.

surgical_fire: People like Hegseth is why you sometimes need Nuremberg trials too.

tchalla: > The US will have ceded much of the moral high ground they claimed in avenging the slaughter of innocent protesters.It will be forgotten soon.

AlecSchueler: In the US, but not in Iran and elsewhere.

jiggawatts: Many similar incidents occurred in Ukraine, where Russia targeted apartment blocks that were built on the former site of some sort of military building that was demolished decades ago.The ultimate hubris is launching a multi million dollar missile to kill civilians because you couldn’t be bothered to check Google street view (or whatever).

lawn: Russia actively targets hospitals, fire departments and schools for years and you attribute it to "outdated info".Shame on you.

jiggawatts: It was quite obviously outdated info.What people don’t seem to understand is the word “targeted”.They see some obviously civilian target in ruins with screaming parents outside and they have an instant visceral emotional reaction: “What kind of monster would do something like this on purpose!?”Practically nobody targets civilian building with expensive precision munitions! They’re expensive! There’s limited supply! Targets are chosen to maximise the military effect.The problem is that the victims and journalists have “boots on the ground”. They’re right there and can clearly see the civilian nature of the target with their own eyes.The person doing the targeting from som bunker thousands of miles away can see only blurry rectangles on an outdated map, has sparse intelligence reports, and targets coordinates. They’re not walking up to the missile like it’s some sort of intelligent war animal and whispering “kill civilians!” in its ear.Similarly, they’re not on the ground standing outside the civilian target waving the missile in with light sticks like some airport tarmac staff.I repeat: they’re thousands of miles away and have to target hundreds of buildings that all look the same-ish from space and aren’t magically labelled by God as “no longer valid under the Geneva conventions” or whatever.I’m not saying that this makes war good or in any way ethical, but you can see how a mistake is made that doesn’t require cartoonish evil people to explain.

lawn: Terrorbombning is a thing, you should look it up.

andriy_koval: > It will be forgotten soon.it won't. Opposing US political side will weaponize this incident in their interests.

jiggawatts: Oh sure, and the US did it against both Japan and Germany in WW2, but those were not even remotely the same scenario as precision strikes against the IRGC and Iranian leadership in general.This was clearly a horrific mistake, especially obvious since the girls school used to be a military building.

lawn: I was talking about Russia, not US incompetence or malice, who have an explicit tactic to target civilians.

DrProtic: US killed more children in a day than Russia did in 4 years in Ukraine.

krapp: >Practically nobody targets civilian building with expensive precision munitions! They’re expensive! There’s limited supply! Targets are chosen to maximise the military effect.We're not dealing with a rational or competent military chain of command. We're dealing with people who believe they're bringing about the Biblical Second Coming and that rules of engagement are "woke." These are literally cartoonishly evil people. They probably chose targets by asking Grok.

jiggawatts: I'm going to confidently state that nobody in the US military chain of command gave the order to "mix some schools into the target list" for any reason, religious or not.That's absurd on its face, and if you honestly believe that, then your mental model of how the world (and people in general) function is fundamentally broken.

krapp: >That's absurd on its face, and if you honestly believe that, then your mental model of how the world (and people in general) function is fundamentally broken.I'm not talking about the world or people in general, I'm talking about about the Commander in Chief Donald Trump and "Secretary of War" Pete Hegseth, the people who set the tone and make the decisions. And if you listen to either one of them, especially Hegseth, you'll realize it isn't absurd on its face at all.Even if no one gave a specific order to "mix some schools into the target list" this administration clearly and explicitly - as in, has literally stated on the record - does not care about morality, ethics, rules of engagement or anything of the sort. It's not out of the question that they would intentionally target civilian infrastructure just as a show of force and aggression, or simply not care because their goal is and I'm quoting here "killing people and breaking things."

matusp: Yeah, but that does not influence US politics.

bathtub365: [delayed]

Teever: I'm genuinely surprised.After seeing this article flagged https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47273698 I assumed there was no hope for this one.

Sabinus: This is real life not cartoon villany. The US administration is not a kind one, but their goals are not just 'death for people in Iran'.

JeremyNT: The fate of Iranian civilians does not impact US politics.A majority of Americans are completely unconcerned by the suffering of victims of the empire abroad.

mempko: You forget the UI killed a million Iraqis and also had a torture prison. I don't think the US has every had the high ground.

xrd: I'm not sure how "they want war, so they are bombing negligently" is any different. Or morally better.

Sabinus: It's not, but that's not what the USA wants. They want Iran to stop destabilising the ME, and to eliminate the threat to the USA consisting of the Iranian nuke program, the ballistic missile program, and the religious zeal to use them.What on earth makes you assert the USA just 'wants war'? If this war goes on for too long Trump is cooked. He'll lose the election and might even be unpopular enough to cop the persecution he deserves.

mullingitover: > What on earth makes you assert the USA just 'wants war'?The "Department of War" they created before promptly starting an absolute textbook War of Aggression is evidence beyond a reasonable doubt that the war was premeditated.